New Jersey welcomes November with a chill, then a warm front
Wednesday will be cool for the Garden State, with clouds and sprinkles, before temperatures rise overnight into Thursday.
Hello, November! As if Mother Nature could read the changing calendar, we're starting the new month with one of the coldest mornings of the season so far. In fact, I'm calling it the first widespread frost of the season too, with all but the urban corridors and the coast falling into the 20s and 30s. Yup, it's cold out there!
On average, November begins with normal high temperatures in the lower 60s, and a normal low in the lower 40s. By the end of the month, normal highs fall to around 50 degrees and normal low temperatures end up near the freezing mark. This is the last month of climatological autumn and the Atlantic hurricane season.
After our cold start Wednesday morning, we'll warm up to about the same mark as Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. That's still a hair below normal. Skies will be mostly cloudy for most of Wednesday, and it looks like a few light showers and sprinkles will pass through the state. These will be nothing more than nuisance raindrops, with rainfall totals less than 0.05". The best chance for damp weather will be away from the coast (northern and western NJ).
Wednesday night will be weird. As a warm front passes through New Jersey, temperatures will actually rise through the overnight hours. We'll go from the upper 50s to the 60s by Thursday morning. Furthermore, as dew points rise to meet the temperature, we could see patches of fog develop as well.
Thermometers will continue climbing on Thursday, peaking in the lower 70s — about 10 degrees above normal for early November. You may have to fight off an isolated shower, especially Thursday morning. Most of the day will be mostly cloudy, although models hint at a few extra breaks of sunshine Thursday afternoon.
Clouds will win the sky on Friday too, but temperatures will once again reach the lower 70s. (Maybe even mid 70s in South Jersey!)
This particular warmup, however, will be short-lived. A cold front will pass through New Jersey from Friday evening through early Saturday morning. The latest model run suggests a few showers and sprinkles will be possible from this front, but rainfall totals will be insignificant.
Saturday's high temperatures will be limited to around 60 degrees — not bad, although the day will remain cloudy. Thermometers should bump back into the mid 60s on Sunday, still with lots of clouds. I think there will be a few showers around through the weekend, although confidence remains shaky regarding the exact location and timing. At the moment, I think the highest chance for wet weather will come Saturday night into early Sunday.