The heat rolls on: More 90s and spot storms for NJ Tuesday
Hello and happy Tuesday! This is the exact halfway point between the Summer Solstice (June 21) and the Fall Equinox (September 22). And yes, we have more hot and humid weather for this midsummer's day — how appropriate! We're not breaking any records, but you are most definitely going to sweat.
It's a sticky start to your Tuesday morning, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s on the mountaintops to upper 70s in the urbanized areas surrounding NYC. Thermometers will once again aim for the lower 90s across most of New Jersey. That will be the third day-in-a-row of 90+, making it an "official" heat wave. The Jersey Shore will be slightly cooler, just like Monday, in the mid to upper 80s.
My math shows the heat index peaking in the upper 90s Tuesday afternoon, just shy of "potentially dangerous" advisory criteria for most of the state. However, a Heat Advisory continues for the five counties in northeastern NJ until 8 p.m. — that's Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union.
Models suggest a popup shower or thunderstorms ill be possible at any time late-day Tuesday. The best chance for a bit of rain will come as a soon-to-be-weak storm system rolls into North Jersey Tuesday evening. The near-sunset timing is not idea, and the system looks to lose some oomph as it arrives. Still, a pocket of heavy rain and some boisterous thunderstorm are possible.
We'll do it all again on Wednesday, another hot and humid day. Under a mix of sun and clouds, most high temps will hit the lower 90s for the fourth consecutive day. With a (weak) cold front set to approach the Garden State Wednesday evening, we're tracking the chance for scattered thunderstorms in the 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. time frame. The latest guidance backs off the storminess a bit, but I think there will be enough lift and instability and moisture to sustain some strong to severe thunderstorms. It's worth watching the sky — Wednesday evening will be our best chance of rain during the workweek.
By Thursday, we'll get a taste of ever-so-slightly less humid air. But even as dew points drop from the mid 70s to the mid 60s, it will be noticeable. (Especially in the early morning hours.) Following a lingering morning shower, we'll clear to mostly sunny skies by Thursday afternoon. Don't expect much of a cooldown though — we'll still make a run for 90 degrees on Thursday.
90 is a good bet for Friday too, even as clouds increase once again.
I'm still not willing to go into detail about the weekend forecast, but I have to admit that I do not like what I see. Yes, it will be cooler, with highs only in the 80s for Saturday and Sunday. But that's because of rain, which could be steady or heavy at times through early next week. Weekend washout? We'll see.