Is a recession coming? Look to these 3 NJ towns to know 

Do we rely on Sunday morning talking heads on TV to let us know when an economy is about to wobble? Or do we look elsewhere at real people in places that don’t receive glamorous attention?

A fascinating survey came out by MarketBeat that shows in New Jersey, there are three towns or cities to look at most to see if there’s going to be a recession hitting. More than 3,000 business leaders were asked, “Where does change happen first?” You might think there would be 3,000 different answers. But no. There was enough consensus to indicate three Garden State towns as a good indicator of the direction the economy is heading.

# 1 — Bayonne

“Bayonne lies between the industrial edge of New Jersey and the gravity of New York City,” according to the report. Thus making it a bellwether of sorts for urban resilience.

When housing turnover drops or retail foot traffic declines, it tends to reflect tightening wallets among working-class commuters. That’s Bayonne. The city also tends to reflect how transportation costs, credit conditions, and housing stress are affecting families squeezed between metro expenses and stagnant wages, often signaling broader changes in urban economic health statewide.

Read More: What To Expect From Brunswick Square Mall's Redevelopment Plans

#2 — Parsippany

Parsippany? This place?! Yep. Parsippany is home to corporate offices, distribution centers, and thousands of commuters, making it a useful gauge for business investment and worker mindset.

Parsippany often feels it early on when commercial leases decline or hiring stalls. It also tends to demonstrate how families with long commutes and high housing costs respond to inflation. With exposure to both professional services and logistics, the town “gives a reliable early signal for statewide shifts in white-collar and middle-income confidence,” according to MarketBeat.

#3 — Vineland

Don’t they only have the Delsea Drive-in? Please! Located in a farmland area of South Jersey, Vineland blends agricultural output with healthcare and retail. If grocery store traffic drops or farm hiring slows, it’s often a sign that broader economic pressure is building within working-class families.

They say Vineland also mirrors state-level changes in wages, fuel prices, and home affordability. Because it’s not one of the state’s major metros, it offers a clearer look at how lower-income and rural populations are handling financial strain.

“As we move through an unpredictable economic landscape, these signal cities offer something rare: real-time glimpses into how economic shifts take root and ripple,” MarketBeat founder Matt Paulson said.

“They’re not just towns on a map — they’re the places where new trends, pressures, and recoveries start to show themselves first. For anyone watching what’s next, this is where to look.”

Opinions expressed in the post above are those of New Jersey 101.5 talk show host Jeff Deminski only.

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