A warm first week of October for New Jersey
Happy October! We closed out September with some truly terrific weather — I think one of the nicest weekends of the entire year. The new month will see normal high temperatures fall from around 70 to near 60 degrees, with average low temps falling from the lower 50s to about 40. We'll lose over an hour of daylight too, as sunrise pushes a half-hour later and sunset gets a half-hour earlier by the end of the month.
The theme for the first week of October (maybe even the first half of the month) will be above-normal temperatures. While there will be clouds and rain along the way, I don't see any "major" storm systems, nor any persistent drenching rain like we've faced over the past three months.
Monday morning is starting cool, crisp, and clear. Temperatures are mostly in the 50s, with 60s in urban and coastal areas.
Clouds will steadily increase through Monday afternoon, but I think it's still fair to call it a pleasant day. High temperatures are forecast to be about 10 degrees above-normal for early October, in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Warmer than both days this weekend.
Meanwhile, the stream of constant rain we've seen so many times this summer will remain well north of New Jersey, so we can keep Monday's forecast high and dry.
Because of the increased cloud cover and increased humidity, Monday night won't be as delightfully cool as the past few nights. It'll be fairly comfortable for Tuesday morning, with low temps in the mid 60s. Patchy dense fog is likely overnight too.
Tuesday will bring lots of clouds, as the sticky warmth continues to build. We'll see lower 80s by Tuesday afternoon.
In addition, our next cold front will arrive late Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms could arrive in NW NJ as early as mid-afternoon. While the first few storm cells could produce some heavy rain and gusty winds, I'm not expecting much for the rest of the state. Just scattered showers through Tuesday evening.. This will be our greatest rain chance of the week.
While the front will bring us rain and a briefly brisk wind, the temperature impacts heading into Wednesday will be minimal. It will remain warm, humid, and pleasant as we flip back to a dry weather day. Look for highs in the lower 80s Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday promises to be the warmest day of the week, with top temps in the mid 80s. (My calculations suggest South Jersey could be as hot as 87 or 88 degrees!) Most of Thursday will feature partial sunshine.
Our next next cold front is scheduled to arrive late Thursday. This one looks moisture-starved. So, while we could see a few showers Thursday night, the key word here is few.
Friday will be our big cooldown day, with temperatures returning to the more seasonable lower to mid 70s. With a mix of sun and clouds, we'll close out the workweek with another pleasant weather day.
My early call for the weekend shows partly sunny skies and warming temperatures, from mid 70s on Saturday to lower 80s on Sunday. (The warmup thanks to a shift from southeasterly to southwesterly wind.) I can't call the weekend dry, unfortunately, as various forecast model solutions show widely scattered showers for both days. (Reminder: It's still early in the week, and forecast skill is pretty poor beyond a 5-day forecast. We'll further pinpoint the weekend forecast as the week presses on.)