Clouds, a few showers, and rough surf to start the week in NJ
Tropical Storm Gert will cause only indirect, coastal impacts on the Garden State.
Another summer weekend with lots of mixed feelings. While Saturday was damp and grey, Sunday was simply beautiful. In fact, Sunday was a stellar example of a typical, seasonable mid-August day, with highs in the mid 80s.
A return to southerly winds will raise humidity slightly and bring a bout of unsettled, warmer weather to start the new workweek. On the whole, we'll be just fine for the first half of the week, with just some "nuisance" raindrops along the way.
Tropical Storm Gert
Gert. Quite possibly the least intimidating storm name you could think of. Luckily, this tropical system will be a "fish storm." That means there will be no direct impacts on the U.S. East Coast — i.e. no rain and no wind. But there could be indirect impacts.
As of Monday morning, Tropical Storm Gert is centered just shy of 700 miles southeast of Cape May, N.J. As it turns out to sea, Gert will come within 400 to 500 miles of the Jersey Shore. That's close enough to throw some extra swell toward the coast, initiating some rough surf and kicking up the risk for dangerous rip currents.
If you're headed to the beach late Monday, Tuesday, or early Wednesday, the ocean might be a bit angry. Otherwise, you won't even notice Gert.
It's a comfortable start to Monday morning, with most of the state close to 60 degrees. (The Jersey Shore is closer to 70.) Skies will progress from partly to mostly cloudy, with light winds. High temperatures will push into the lower 80s across most of the state. The NAM model says isolated showers are possible after 2 p.m. Monday, while the GFS keeps New Jersey completely dry. So we might see some light raindrops, but the atmosphere probably won't be able to sustain any degree of heavy rain or even thunderstorms.
I'm keeping raindrops in the forecast for Monday night, but again they look light and widely scattered at best. There will certainly be lots of clouds overhead. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 60s. It might feel a little sticky, but not unbearably so.
There's good model consensus for additional scattered showers on Tuesday, especially in the afternoon hours. Yet again, I don't see anything heavy or ground-breaking. High temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s.
Wednesday looks dry and quite warm. Under a mix of sun and clouds, high temperatures will bump into the mid to upper 80s. I wouldn't rule out a few 90s in South Jersey. Humidity? It'll be there, but not oppressive.
Thursday daytime looks good too, with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Next Substantial Rain
Our next storm system rolls in late Thursday to Friday, with the highest rain chance of the week. Showers may begin around sunset Thursday, increasing in intensity and coverage (to scattered thunderstorms) Friday afternoon and evening.
Despite the raindrops, Friday will be very warm, in the mid to upper 80s.
If this forecast holds exactly as it stands, we'll actually eke out a quiet weekend. Don't hold your breath though — I'm seeing showers both early Saturday morning and late Sunday night. If the timing for either of those storm systems wiggles even slightly, part of the weekend will be in jeopardy. Stay tuned — we'll start getting a clearer picture of the weekend forecast by Wednesday.