Cold, mainly dry weather continues – still watching weekend storm
South Jersey turned into quite the winter wonderland on Wednesday! An inverted trough drove persistent heavy snow over an isolated swath in and around Atlantic County. Top (unconfirmed) snowfall total was 7.5 inches at Brigantine.
We've got a much quieter weather forecast for Thursday and beyond. Although thermometers will remain on the cold side of normal for the foreseeable future. (Much of the state may not see 50 degrees for the next week or two, at least.)
We're starting off mostly in the 20s on this Thursday morning, with mainly clear skies. Temperatures are in the teens amongst the higher elevations of NW NJ and where there is significant snow on the ground in SE NJ.
We'll see a mix of sun and clouds across New Jersey Thursday, and it'll be breezy too (southwesterly at 10 to 20 mph). High temperatures will only reach the lower 40s Thursday afternoon — not horrible, I guess, but still about 5 degrees below normal for early December.
I have two minor weather concerns for far North Jersey. First, a lake-effect snow shower (more like a flurry) could drift into the Sussex/Warren counties at any point. Second, additional snow showers will be possible Thursday evening from an approaching cold front. Most models show this snowfall to fizzle before reaching the dry atmosphere of the Garden State. But I think it's prudent to include a few snowflakes in the forecast — maaaaaybe even a coating on the ground, but that's it.
Skies will clear statewide overnight, especially after Midnight. Low temps will dip into the mid to upper 20s. An occasional breeze will add a noticeable bite to that cold air.
Friday looks quiet, dry, and cold. Under mostly to partly sunny skies, high temperatures will be limited to about 40 degrees.
Sigh, and the weekend looks to get even colder. Highs on Saturday get stuck in the mid 30s — that means the coldest parts of the state (looking at you NW NJ) could get stuck below freezing all day. Clouds will start to increase steadily by Saturday afternoon.
Sunday's forecast is still complicated, thanks to a sizable and potent storm system that will pass through the Carolinas. I've been staring at model guidance over the past day, and the developing consensus paints a "miss" for New Jersey (in terms of rain/snow, at least). It is a really close call — within about 100 miles — and it's important to note that I'm not totally convinced we won't see any raindrops or snowflakes from this one.
Regardless of precipitation, there's still a chance for some thick cloud cover, enhanced winds, and perhaps some coastal flooding for Sunday-Monday. Let's all keep an eye on this one.
My current forecast for Sunday shows sunshine in North Jersey and clouds in South Jersey (closer to that storm system). Same ol' story in terms of temperatures, with highs stuck in the lower 40s.
As long as we don't see snow Sunday night, we'll enjoy dry weather and a slow warmup for early next week. I'm seeing lower 40s for Monday, mid 40s for Tuesday, and upper 40s for Wednesday. The next threat for a significant storm will be next Friday-Saturday, but obviously it's too early for any details.