Generally nice Tuesday for NJ, but unsettled and stormy weather ahead
I'm happy to report New Jersey will thread the needle between storm systems on Tuesday, leading to a bright and generally pleasant forecast. Don't get used to the sunshine, dry weather, and mild temperatures though — a strong storm system is only about 48 hours away.
We are starting out with some chilly temperatures on this Tuesday morning: upper 20s northwest, 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast. So you'll need a jacket to start the day, at least. Our latest forecast puts Tuesday afternoon high temperatures between 60 and 65. A nice change of pace from an overall cool month of April. Although we come up a degree or two shy of climatological normals for this time of year. So, according to my unofficial "back of the envelope" calculations, it could be our 13th below-normal day in a row.
Tuesday will feature lots of sunshine — let's call it mostly to partly sunny. You'll experience some fair weather clouds, a light breeze, and mainly dry weather. The big exception, and the only real wrinkle to the day, will be a weak disturbance pushing into southwestern New Jersey. (Around the Interstate 295 corridor, especially south of Camden.) That will introduce some extra clouds, and possibly a late-day shower.
Clouds will increase statewide Tuesday night, with a continuing shower chance. It will not be as cold as the night before (frost/freeze unlikely), with lows around the mid 40s.
It's definitely going to look and feel more unsettled on Wednesday. A warm front lifting through the state will add a quick shower chance early Wednesday morning. And there will probably be a few showers around late Wednesday too. In the middle, it will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and cool with highs only in the mid to upper 50s. (Unfortunately, the warming effect of that warm front won't quite reach New Jersey — part of Delaware may top 70 Wednesday.)
Thursday is going to be our next nasty weather day, as a strong storm system passes just to our north. First of all, it will turn quite windy — gusts over 50 mph are likely (both ambient and thunderstorm-related). Then it will turn stormy, with a period of very heavy rain — rainfall totals will range from 1 to 2 inches statewide, which may cause some flash flooding issues as it falls hard and fast.
Bottom line: You will not want to be anywhere outdoors when the strongest winds and heaviest rain rolls through Thursday.
Now unfortunately, forecast confidence is still rather shaky regarding the timing of that squall line of thunderstorms. The GFS model paints stormy weather from about Thursday midday to afternoon. Meanwhile, the NAM and the Euro have pushed the frontal passage much later, more like Thursday night. So I think "PM hours" are a pretty good bet for now — but hopefully we'll have a better consensus and a more specific timeline in the next day.
On Friday, lingering showers and clouds will make for a somewhat damp and grey day. But there is a window around midday for some peeks of sunshine. Plus, the cooldown won't be overly severe, with highs around 60 degrees.
The best news of all in this forecast comes this weekend. Partly sunny and near 70 Saturday. Mostly cloudy (maybe a shower) and lower-mid 70s Sunday. Sunshine and 70s Monday. I think I speak for almost every New Jerseyan when I exclaim... Woohoo!