NJ nor’easter update: Coastal Flood Warning, Wind Advisory posted
Since I last posted on Thursday, there have been no big changes to New Jersey's coastal storm situation. We have been tracking this storm's play-by-play since it was a major hurricane in the Pacific, and now it's almost "go time".
For this post, I hope to offer a succinct, easy-to-skim summary of the major bullet points of this weekend's stormy forecast.
I know it's cliche, but it's the calm before the storm. A chilly start, mostly in the 30s. A cool finish, with highs about 50 to 55 (similar to Thursday). Skies will be mostly cloudy, with just an isolated shower possible at any time.
Rain will push into South Jersey around Friday early evening (around 5 or 6 p.m.), spreading northward through the rest of the state by about Midnight. Nothing overly dramatic at first, just rain.
The truly nasty weather will arrive Saturday morning, with rainfall intensity and wind speed peaking between about 2 a.m. and Noon.
Probably New Jersey's most significant impact of this coastal storm.
East-northeast winds will blow at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph (inland) and 50 mph (coast). Peak winds are modeled to occur around 8 a.m. Saturday morning. Scattered power outages are likely, and you might want to secure your outdoor Halloween decorations in advance of the storm.
A Wind Advisory has been issued for eastern Bergen, eastern Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and eastern Union counties.
The fierce wind will push a lot of ocean water toward the Jersey Shore. At the moment, the only high tide cycle of concern is Saturday morning, which is expected to be about 2 feet higher than normal. That will occur between 9 and 10 a.m. along the Atlantic Ocean, and up to several hours later on back bays and tributaries. Widespread moderate flooding may force road closures and perhaps cause some property damage along tidal waterways. Ocean waves over 8 feet may cause beach erosion as well.
A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued for the northern coast: eastern Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and eastern Union. Because of the forecast orientation and strength of the winds, a less-severe Coastal Flood Advisory is posted for the southern coast: Atlantic, southeastern Burlington, and Cape May counties. No significant flooding issues are expected around the Delaware Bay or Delaware River.
Rainfall totals will range from about 1 inch in NW NJ to upwards of 2 inches closer to the Jersey Shore. Locally higher amounts may occur due to very heavy downpours and/or training of storms (where rain forms and re-forms repeatedly over the same area). With those totals and our generally dry ground, flash flooding is possible, but not a major concern.
Highly uncertain. Models are all over the place so I've had to err toward middle ground. I am confident we'll stay well above freezing through the duration. Mostly 40s Friday night, mostly 50s Saturday, mostly 40s Saturday night.
Not a concern. There could be a few snowflakes in far northern New Jersey at the tail end of the storm. However, any threat of accumulation will remain well north of us.
We'll transition from wind-driven rain to breezy showers Saturday afternoon. Rain should end completely Saturday evening, by about Midnight at the latest.
Clearly the calmer, drier, and brighter day of the weekend. Sunshine should break through the clouds, and I suspect it will remain fairly breezy at times (up to 20 mph). With high temperatures around 60 degrees, it should be a pretty nice day.