Weekend storm system looks like a miss for New Jersey
North Carolina and Virginia are expected to get slammed by snow this weekend. As for New Jersey? It looks like a miss, but only by about 50 to 100 miles. That will be our only significant storm threat for the next 7 days — once again, this forecast is mostly just cold, cold, cold.
It looks like skies will stay sunny for most of Friday. It's a chilly start, with temperatures near the freezing mark (upper 20s to mid 30s). High temperatures will be similar to Thursday, around 40 degrees. There could be a few flurries flying around and a bit of a breezy, especially around northern NJ.
Even colder air will filter into the Garden State Friday night. So thermometers are expected to nosedive into the upper teens to lower 20s. This could be our coldest night since that frigid Thanksgiving-Black Friday combo last month.
And Saturday will stay frosty, with high temperatures only in the mid 30s. That's at least 10 degrees below normal for early December. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, on what should be a dry and otherwise quiet weather day.
Sunday was the day we were watching for potential winter storm impacts. But all model guidance now shows the storm to stay south of New Jersey. The closest solution is probably the NAM, which puts the northernmost band less than 50 miles south of Cape May. A little close for comfort, perhaps.
But even if the storm "wiggles" closer to New Jersey, it would be a band of rain and not snow to impact the southern edge of the state. I would be foolish to completely rule out a few showers in the 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Sunday time frame.
Because the storm will not curve northward and skirt up the Atlantic seaboard, the threat for wind and coastal flooding is limited as well. Still worth keeping an eye on the tide gauges this weekend. But really, this ain't our storm.
Otherwise, Sunday will be cloudy and chilly, with highs in the lower 40s.
In previous forecasts, I had been hoping for moderating (warming) temperatures next week. But the numbers continue to slide into the unseasonable cold zone.
As the southern storm system departs early Monday, we should quickly clear to sunshine. High temperatures will end up between 40 and 45 degrees. Not a terrible day — I just wish it were a few degrees warmer.
Thermometers scale back to around 40 degrees on Tuesday, and then push into the lower 40s on Wednesday. Consistently chilly and quiet.
Thursday shows a slight warmup, perhaps into the mid 40s for part of the state. In addition, an approaching warm front could fire off a period of light snow or rain.
The biggest concern next week will once again arrive at the very end of the week. The GFS has been quite persistent about a sizable coastal storm in the late Friday-Saturday time frame. At the moment, it's all rain. But at the moment, it's a 7-8 day forecast so confidence and accuracy is low. I'm sure this will be the big weather story we'll be tracking all week next week.