A few inches of snow for South Jersey by Monday morning
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for southern and coastal New Jersey, as 1 to 3 inches of snow are in the forecast from late Sunday night through Monday morning.
WHAT? An area of low pressure will strengthen as it exits the Virginia coast Sunday night. A glancing blow to the southern half of New Jersey will likely deliver a period of accumulating snow through Monday morning. Temperatures will be cold enough to sustain all snow - snowfall totals will be dictated by where the heaviest snow bands set up. All this means we're expecting a period of icy/snowy roads, low visibility, and therefore slow travel.
WHEN? Light snow showers could begin right along the Delaware Bay as early as 8 p.m. Sunday evening. Steadier snow bands will arrive after Midnight, with the heaviest snowfall expected around 4 to 5 a.m Monday. Snowflakes could linger through midday Monday.
WHERE? A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 3 a.m. to Noon Monday for the following counties: Atlantic, southeastern Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean, Salem. These counties will most likely see 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation. Localized totals up to 4 or 5 inches are possible too (especially to the south and west). I could also see a trace of snowfall making it as far north as Central Jersey, around Mercer, Monmouth, Middlesex, and Somerset counties.
CONFIDENCE? Models are in pretty good agreement, so our forecast confidence is pretty solid regarding the timing and geography of the snow accumulation. The one admitted exception is the NAM model, which had one run that pumped out much heavier snow totals. It seems pretty clear this solution is a nonsensical outlier, with forecast totals double that of the other models (and even other runs of the same model).
IMPACTS? While not a major snow storm, a few inches of snow falling in a short period of time could be enough to cause travel problems for the Monday morning commute. School delays and even closings are certainly on the table, especially in the advisory area. No wind or surf problems are expected with this system.
WHAT'S NEXT? Another storm system looks to clip North Jersey around midday Tuesday, which could produce a quick inch or two of snow accumulation. Our next significantly storm system has been consistently showing up in the models for next Sunday-Monday - that's one we'll be watching very closely over the coming week.