Another warm summer day Wednesday – watching next t-storm chance
If you like it warm, Tuesday was all-around an excellent summer day. So nice, let's do it twice! Not much has changed in our atmosphere, so Wednesday's forecast is practically a copy-and-paste job from Tuesday's weather. We do have some changes in the next 24 to 36 hours, so please keep reading.
This is a "persistence" forecast — where I literally take the previous day's weather observations and plug it in for today. Tuesday's high temperatures at Newark, Trenton, and Atlantic City were 91, 87, and 86 degrees, respectively. Wednesday's forecast is practically the same, aside from a few extra clouds and bumping ACY's forecast high temp to 88. It will be another great beach day — especially since the Jersey Shore will be the only place in the state with an appreciable breeze to keep the hot air moving around.
Wednesday night will feature passing clouds. And it'll feel a bit sticky, as most summer nights do. Low temperatures will drop to around 70 degrees overnight.
Changes are ahead for Thursday. First of all, it's going to get very humid, as dew points surge above 70. We are going to take into some rich moisture, stemming from the Gulf of Mexico (where a tropical depression or tropical storm may be developing).
While Thursday will begin with (partial) sunshine, clouds will increase quickly through midday. High temperatures will be slightly cooler, in the mid 80s across New Jersey.
Most importantly, we're going to see widespread thunderstorms arrive starting Thursday afternoon, as a cold front approaches NJ. Scattered storms and rain will continue through part of Thursday night too. Severe weather (wind, hail, tornado) is possible, but the parameters and indices are rather unimpressive. I am increasingly concerned about the potential for torrential downpours leading to flooding. Downpours may impact part of the Thursday evening commute in particular. As you know, all it takes is a quick inch of rain to make for a very soggy go.
You'll find lingering clouds Friday morning, and I can't completely rule out a leftover shower. The aforementioned cold front won't really lead to cooler temperatures — actually, because of increasing sunshine, Friday will almost certainly be hotter than Thursday. However, we will see a gradual decline in humidity levels, making the air a bit more comfortable. High temperatures will reach the slightly-above-normal upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
It's a good thing that humidity will dial back, since we have a hot weekend coming up. High temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday will flirt with 90 degrees. Saturday will be the sunnier of the two days. A weak cold front will slide through the Garden State on Sunday, but I expect nothing more than an isolated shower (if that).
Summertime heat continues next week, with afternoon temperatures well into the 80s (at least). There are no major storm systems on the horizon, although there could be some scattered rain late Tuesday.