Cooler and cloudier Thursday, warmer but wetter by the weekend
Hey hey, Wednesday turned into a lovely spring day, as temperatures skyrocketed into the 60s across most of New Jersey! (Admittedly a few degrees warmer than I had expected.) I think that's going to be our last truly "nice" day for a while, as a temporary cooldown, clouds, and a few bursts of rain return to the forecast.
It's a chilly start to your Thursday morning, with early temperatures on either side of 40 degrees. And Thursday is going to be much cooler than Wednesday overall, with highs limited to the lower to mid 50s. That's firmly in "jacket weather" territory. The reason for the cooldown is twofold: extra clouds, and a light breeze blowing off the cool ocean.
You'll catch some breaks of sunshine, mixed with clouds. Air will be dry. Weather will be dry. Winds will be light. So not a terrible day of weather — just cooler.
Of course, if you experience seasonal allergy symptoms, you may really be suffering right now. Tree pollen is in the high range, while ragweed is very high. Ah-choo, itchy throat, sinuses on fire, non-stop tears, blech.
Thursday night will remain mostly cloudy and comfortably cool. Low temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 40s overnight.
Models are showing a slight chance for a sprinkle Friday morning, but the rest of the daytime hours will be dry, cloudy, and breezy. Temperatures will bump back into the above-normal zone, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Our next storm system arrives Friday night, after about 7 p.m. at the earliest. Periods of light to moderate rain will pass through the Garden State during the overnight hours. Temperatures aren't warm enough and convective indices don't look high enough to support widespread thunder and lightning.
Now, here's where the forecast gets muddy. There's pretty good consensus among model guidance that showers will linger into part of Saturday. For the northern half of NJ, I'm thinking showers will taper off by mid-morning Saturday. But South Jersey may remain a bit damp even into Saturday early afternoon. While there will be raindrops, I do not think it's going to be a total washout of a day. When you catch a period dry weather, it will be mostly cloudy and warm, with highs in the 70s (away from the coast). You might even taste some humidity in the air.
Confidence sinks pretty low about how the second half of the weekend turns out, as model solutions (particularly the GFS) keep flip-flopping on rainfall timing and temperatures. My current forecast calls for a dry Sunday morning, before rain returns to the forecast Sunday afternoon. At least temperatures will stay on the warm side, near 70 degrees to close out the weekend.
Wet weather will continue through at least Monday midday. Clearing skies and cooler air take over Monday afternoon. But this isn't an arctic blast, just a step back closer to normal. I'm seeing high temps for Tuesday and Wednesday in the lower to mid 60s.