Farewell, ferocious arctic wind – we will not miss you
The best possible weather news I can pass along: That bone-chilling arctic wind has already started to subside across New Jersey. While it's still breezy along the Jersey Shore (gusts over 20 mph), even that will lighten up as the day goes on.
While we won't have to contend with a biting wind chill on this Tuesday, and it won't be as frigid as Monday (NJ's coldest day since early January 2018). it's still going to be unseasonably cold, as cold high pressure builds right on top of us. Skies will be sunny, and the air will remain bone-dry.
As students across New Jersey go back to school Tuesday morning after the long weekend, they'll get a taste of temperatures in the lower teens. There are still some very icy spots out there — keep in mind any spills, water main breaks, fire suppression systems, or spray will freeze instantly.
High temperatures will improve Tuesday afternoon to the lower 30s. Part (but not all) of the Garden state will (briefly) pop above the freezing mark.
Clouds will start filling in the sky from late afternoon through Tuesday evening. That blanket of clouds and lighter winds will ensure Tuesday night won't be as cold as the past two nights. Look for low temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s.
By Wednesday morning, skies will be cloudy and warmer air will begin to flow our way. High temperatures should reach the mid 40s, with thermometers continuing to slowly rise to near 50 degrees by Thursday morning.
However, along with the warmup comes some wet. Our next storm system is expected to push into northwestern New Jersey Wednesday afternoon, spreading through the entire state by late Wednesday evening. Periods of heavy, steady rain are likely through the first half of Thursday. 1 to 2 inches inches of total rainfall are a good bet, statewide. Wet, wet, wet.
Let's talk about our very limited chance of wintry weather from this storm. First, if the initial bands of precipitation arrive early enough, there could be a quick hit of wintry mix in NW NJ only. (Again, Wednesday's highs will reach the 40s, well above freezing.) Second, as temperatures fall again at the very tail-end of this system Thursday afternoon, a quick hit of snow is possible anywhere in NJ. I've seen raw model runs spit out suggestions of 1" of total snowfall, but I do not think accumulations will be an issue — the ground will be very wet, and temperatures aren't falling quite that fast.
By Friday, we find ourselves back on the cold side of the world. Morning lows in the 20s, afternoon highs in the 30s. Abundant sunshine, aside from a few flurries (maybe).
The weekend looks chilly but quiet, for a chance. Guidance has on-again, off-again suggested a few snow showers for North Jersey on Sunday morning.
The GFS model is showing a rain-to-snow event for next Monday-Tuesday. The European model paints a drier picture. If the colder, wetter GFS solution wins out (currently my preferred forecast), we may have to talk about snow accumulations by Tuesday afternoon.
That means we'll go a whole week without a substantial chance of snow?! In January?! I'll take it!