Mild, but not as nice Tuesday: Clouds, wind, showers, thunderstorms
Holy guacamole, I love temperatures in the 70s. Monday was just a perfect weather day, in my personal opinion. It was New Jersey's warmest day since Halloween, with widespread lower 70s under a beautiful blue sky. Low humidity, low pollen levels (for now), no bugs (yet). If you were unable to get outside and enjoy, I'm so sorry!
Of course, the warmth comes at the tail-end of an unusually mild and snow-free winter. Which got me thinking about the potential impacts of this non-cold cold season.
--Ocean temperatures have been running 3 to 5 degrees above normal. What will that mean for fishing, jellyfish abundance, and potential algae blooms this summer?
--At the same time, are mosquitoes and other pests going to breed in record numbers?
--With no snowpack to melt this spring, will we face reservoir and/or ground water shortages?
I am not an expert in any of those specific areas. But it will be interesting to see how one unseasonable season will affect the rest of the year.
Anyway, onward to the forecast. We'll keep mild temperatures for Tuesday, with thermometers near 50 in the morning and in the lower-mid 60s in the afternoon. However, it won't be nearly as lovely as Monday. Things will turn windy (southwesterly, with occasional gusts over 30 mph). Skies will be mostly cloudy. And a few batches of passing showers will be possible from late morning through the afternoon. Nothing much and not a total wash, but possibly enough to carry an umbrella or rain jacket if you'll be stuck outside for a while.
The big push of rain will come Tuesday evening. And, given the warmth and growing humidity in the atmosphere, scattered thunderstorms are likely. (I always mention that possibility because by definition thunderstorms produce lightning and are therefore always potentially dangerous.)
Skies will clear out after Midnight Tuesday night, with low temperatures dipping into the lower-mid 40s overnight.
Wednesday won't be terrible, especially with substantial breaks of sunshine early. It will be a cooler day. But with high temperatures in the mid 50s, we're still 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. The only wrinkle is that I can't rule out a shower or sprinkle, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
On Thursday, temperatures return to seasonable levels (typical for this time of year). We'll top out near 50 degrees, under mostly cloudy skies.
Friday looks like a tumultuous weather day. We'll start with rain early Friday morning. High temps will spike into the 60s for most of the state. But that won't last, as a brisk westerly wind kicks up, carrying in cooler, drier air. So we're clearing out and cooling down for the weekend.
It's still a little early to nail down details, but I'm seeing sunshine and 50s for Saturday. The GFS model in particular has consistently shown snow showers over New Jersey Sunday morning, followed by cooler temps in the upper 40s Sunday afternoon.