NJ weather: Memorial Day Weekend forecast upgraded from ‘pretty good’ to ‘great’
The Bottom Line
Welcome to a cooler, drier air mass. The dome of high pressure building into New Jersey on Thursday will bring a temporary cooldown, along with beautiful bright weather. That same blocking high is an important factor in the holiday weekend forecast, keeping a storm system and soaking rain well south of New Jersey.
The Memorial Day Weekend will not be perfect though. There will be clouds. And possibly a few showers. But temperatures will climb from the springy 70s into the summerlike 80s.
A cold front pushed through New Jersey overnight. There was a block of thunderstorms in North Jersey that fizzled out as it pushed south and east. Radar is all clear now, as our new cooler, drier air mass takes hold.
It is a bright, sunny morning. Shockingly sunny, in fact. That is because the haze from western Canada wildfire smoke has exited our atmosphere. So skies will be bluer and brighter than they have been over the last week.
Along with sunshine, you may notice a fresh northerly breeze at times Thursday.
High temperatures will end up about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Cooler, not cool — it's going to be a very nice day. We'll top out around 65 to 70 degrees Thursday afternoon.
One important note for those along the Jersey Shore: A high risk of rip currents is posted Thursday. Red flags will be flying at area beaches, as wave heights peak around 5 feet. Be careful.
Thursday night will be quiet. But I believe it's going to get pretty cold, thanks to a combination of clear skies, light winds, and dry air. We could average mid 40s by Friday morning. Definitely jacket weather.
Another beautiful day. Skies will remain mostly sunny, until some clouds build in the late afternoon. Highs will improve to the lower 70s.
Diving into the big Memorial Day Weekend, the forecast is looking much better and much drier than it had earlier in the week.
As a storm system stays well south of NJ, Saturday will bring a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures across the Garden State will be seasonable, topping out in the lower to mid 70s. The Shore will probably end up cooler, in the 60s.
I am going for a dry forecast for Saturday, although I can't rule completely out an isolated late-day shower to the southwest.
Sunday is the somewhat iffy day of the weekend forecast, especially for the southern half of that state.
That aforementioned storm system will make its closest pass to New Jersey on Sunday. I think it is prudent to include a few "spotty" showers in the forecast, especially to the south. But even that limited wet weather is not a sure bet — the Euro model favors a completely dry day.
At the very least, I think clouds will temporarily take over the sky statewide on Sunday. And that will keep temperatures at bay — closer to 70 than 80.
I would not let this forecast upset your weekend plans. (Unless, perhaps, you were hoping for a beach day.) If rain does affect New Jersey, it should take the form of hit-or-miss showers.
Monday (Memorial Day)
Easily the warmest day of the extended weekend. And with a noticeable bump in humidity, you'll want to stay cool and hydrated if attending Memorial Day parades, ceremonies, etc.
High temperatures will push into the lower 80s away from the coast on Monday. Our most widespread 80-degree day in over two weeks. Skies will be partly sunny. And again, I have dried out the forecast.
The Extended Forecast
The transition from May to June looks to be a warm one, with more temperatures in the 80s than anything else next week. Very little rain chances are modeled until next next weekend, at the earliest.
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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.