NJ weather: One more beautiful day, unsettled weather midweek
The Bottom Line
Wow. In my personal and professional opinion, we are coming off one of the most beautiful weather weekends of the entire year. Sunshine, 80 degrees, dry weather, and low humidity? Awesome.
We'll keep the nice weather for one more day, before our protective dome of high pressure shifts off-shore. Then skies will turn unsettled, with clouds, humidity, and rain chances from late Tuesday through Wednesday and early Thursday.
Tropical Storm Alex is spinning about 600 miles southeast of New Jersey on Monday, sliding past the northern shore of Bermuda. As it continues driving east, out to sea, it poses no risk to New Jersey's weather or wave action.
One more beautiful day. Seriously, no complaints here. It will be mostly sunny and dry, with dew points gently rising from the 40s into the 50s. That is still some unusually dry air for this time of year.
In terms of temperatures, we are starting off on the cool side. 40s in many spots. Mainly in the 50s. Some 60-ish degree temperatures in cities and along the coast.
Inland New Jersey should reach about 80 degrees Monday afternoon. It will be a bit cooler at the Shore, probably around the lower 70s. Ocean temperatures have warmed well into the 60s now — it should be another great day along NJ beaches.
Clouds will start to creep in from late afternoon through Monday night. Still uneventful though. Low temperatures will drop to about normal for this time of year, in the upper 50s to around 60.
Different, but not terrible.
Even though skies will become mostly cloudy on Tuesday, most of the day looks dry. Just watch for spotty to scattered showers that may come into view around late afternoon or early evening.
High temperatures will come down a smidge compared to Monday, to the mid-upper 70s. But even with additional changes ahead, we'll see remarkably consistent, seasonable temperatures (give or take) through the rest of the workweek.
Dew points will push into the 60s Tuesday night leading to a not-as-chilly situation heading into Wednesday morning. That increased humidity will prevent thermometers from dropping below the 60s.
Still unsettled. First of all, you're going to feel the humidity in the air, as dew points surge toward 70. (Pretty summerlike.) High temperatures will also spike into the lower 80s, with breaks of sun amongst murky clouds.
There will also be a continuing chance of rain on Wednesday — an isolated, hit-or-miss shower is possible at any time. And then the risk for a stronger storm and/or steadier, heavier rain will push in Wednesday evening and overnight.
Model forecast parameters are not a "slam dunk" for nasty weather late Wednesday into early Thursday. But that piece of the forecast bears close watching, as I could see some dramatic severe weather or flooding impacts.
If all goes well, rain will wrap up by mid-morning Thursday, and then skies will quickly clear to sunshine. So Thursday should bring a return of pleasant weather. High temperatures should reach the seasonable upper 70s.
Friday & Beyond
Friday also looks good and complaint-free. Partly sunny and 80-ish. Reasonable humidity levels will keep the warmth comfortable and pleasant.
Saturday, however, doesn't look so good. At the moment, both the GFS and Euro models show the return of the dreaded on-shore flow — an easterly breeze, keeping skies cloudy and temperatures unseasonably cool. Add to that a potent little impulse driving rain through NJ around midday Saturday, and we could have a pretty miserable start to the weekend.
There is hope for Sunday though, as the "junk" gets cleared out and we see a return of partial sunshine and upper 70s.