The Bottom Line

We’ve made it to the last week of April! And it’s going to be quite a roller coaster week, in terms of temperatures at least. From 60s to 70s to 80s (!!!). The warmth and humidity won’t last long, but get ready to sweat. While the first half of the week looks mainly dry, the second half does not.

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Monday

I am very pleased with how the forecast turned out this weekend. Hopefully the rain didn’t get in the way of your plans. Especially since Saturday was beautiful, and Sunday afternoon turned pleasant too.

Monday is expected to end up a bit cooler than Sunday. And slightly below normal for late April. But it will still be a very nice day.

40s this morning are cool enough to warrant a jacket early on. We’ll top out around 60 degrees Monday afternoon. It will be sunny and dry, with a 20+ mph breeze out of the northwest.

GFS model temperature forecast for 5 p.m. Monday, near 60 degrees. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

It will stay quiet and pleasant through Monday evening. Look for a few clouds overnight, with a low temperature in “the chilly zone,” around 40 degrees. Some patchy frost is possible in the coldest corners of the state (NW NJ and Pine Barrens).

In addition, a stray rain shower may clip North Jersey early Tuesday morning. (All models are in agreement about this weak wave and smattering of raindrops.)

Tuesday

The warmup begins. But the temperature rise will really kick into high gear Tuesday night, as a warm front lifts into New Jersey.

High temperatures should hit the 70 degree mark across the majority of New Jersey. Skies will be pleasantly partly sunny. And the wind will be calmer, with just a light warming breeze out of the southwest.

GFS model temperature forecast for 5 p.m. Tuesday, near 70 degrees. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

Given the lighter ambient wind, we face the “sea breeze machine” firing up on Tuesday. Because of that and the cool ocean/bay water, coastal communities along the Jersey Shore will struggle to warm past the upper 50s to lower 60s. Not bad - just not quite a beach day.

Wednesday

The most interesting piece of this “big warmup” puzzle might be what happens Tuesday night to Wednesday morning. As warmer air arrives from the south, with mostly cloudy skies, temperatures may stay pretty warm to start the day. At the moment, my forecast shows forecast low temperatures ranging from 50 (northwest) to 59 (south coast). But some models are showing lows in the mid 60s - typical for mid-summer, but incredibly warm for April!

It is indeed going to feel summer-ish on Wednesday, with highs soaring into the lower 80s. That is a full 15 degrees above normal for this time of year, and encroaching upon record highs.

GFS model temperature forecast for 5 p.m. Wednesday, around 80+ degrees. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

A few model runs and weather forecasters have suggested temps will come close to 90. I’m not ready to go that far, given the latest data and concerns over cloud cover.

As dew points spike into the 60s, it’s going to get noticeably more humid Wednesday afternoon. Again, a taste of summer.

Across most of Wednesday, we’ll see a mix of clouds and sun. (Leaning more on the clouds than bright blue sky.)

A weak cold front will sweep through New Jersey Wednesday evening, putting an end to the widespread 80s (for now). It may also spark a few showers, or even a thunderstorm. The instability and moisture are there - I’m just not sure we’ll have enough lift to catalyze precipitation.

Thursday

The better chance for scattered showers will come on Thursday, as another cold front approaches from the west. It will be less humid and somewhat cooler than Wednesday, with most highs scaling back to the 70s. 80+ is still a possibility for inland South Jersey. Skies will be mostly cloudy or even overcast throughout the day.

Friday & Beyond

The full effects of that aforementioned cold front will arrive on Friday. Temperatures should hit the mid-upper 60s Friday morning, before thermometers tumble through the rest of the day. As an area of low pressure rides along the frontal boundary, we face a few periods of rain. At the moment, the wettest part of the day looks to be Friday afternoon.

By Saturday morning, we’ll be back in chilly air, with patchy frost possible away from the coast.

The early look at the weekend shows temperatures generally in the 60s. Saturday looks sunny and breezy. Another storm system could dampen the Garden State again starting late-day Sunday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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