The Bottom Line

Wednesday evening’s thunderstorms were just as noisy and wet as expected. Parts of New Jersey saw more rain in an hour than they saw across the first 25 days of May!

While Thursday looks fantastic, we are eyeing another storm system and the likelihood of wet weather arriving Friday. Unfortunately, raindrops, clouds, and miserably cool temperatures will impact part of the Memorial Day Weekend. I have to be honest - our weather is going to be pretty lousy on Saturday. And probably Sunday too. But Memorial Day Monday will hopefully become the bright spot of the holiday weekend.

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Thursday

Our weather will be much calmer and more comfortable Thursday. I’ve been calling it the nicest day of the week, and that description absolutely still holds true.

Aside from some patchy early morning fog, sunny skies will make for a bright and pleasant day. While it’s still sticky in the morning - with dew points and temperatures in the 60s - humidity levels will steadily dial back through Thursday afternoon. Look for high temperatures on either side of 80 degrees. Nice and warm - enjoy!

Thursday night looks good too. Partly cloudy and quiet, with lows in the mid 50s or so.

Friday

Going downhill and (eventually) getting soaked.

Friday morning looks dry, with increasing clouds and high temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 60s. South Jersey could see a few 70s. So not a terrible start to the day.

However, a broad area of low pressure will track closer and closer to New Jersey Friday afternoon. A stray shower will be possible as early as Noon Friday. But any threat of widespread, steady rain should hold off until after 3-4 p.m.

Friday night, starting after about 7 p.m., we get absolutely soaked. We’re talking 2+ inches of rain possible. That will put a definitive end to our rainfall deficit and drought concerns.

Some models hint that rainfall totals of 3 or even 4 inches are a possibility through the weekend. That’s a lot - and could result in some localized areas of flooding and ponding issues.

Saturday

Lousy.

The steady, heavy rain looks to break up by about 8 a.m. Saturday morning. But the latest model guidance suggests scattered pockets rain will linger over the Garden State through the daytime hours on Saturday.

At the very least, Saturday will be damp and cloudy and breezy and miserably cool. HIgh temperatures will only make it into the mid 50s, at best. That’s 20 degrees below normal for late May, feeling more like late March or early April.

Sunday

Temperatures still go nowhere.

While I had previously favored a dry forecast for Sunday, a stalled front just off the coast could introduce some showers. While it will be drier than Saturday, it will still be cloudy and quite cool. Thermometers will barely budge, again hovering in the mid 50s through Sunday afternoon.

Memorial Day Monday & Beyond

Brighter, warmer, better!

Our storm system finally departs, and our air finally dries out. I am optimistic that we’ll salvage a nice day Monday - although not quite warm enough for a “beach day”. With sun and clouds overhead, high temperatures should pop into the lower 70s Monday afternoon.

70s will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday (at least), with fair skies and comfy weather. Our next chance of rain is modeled to arrive Wednesday night.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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