NJ weather: Two great days, before humidity and raindrops return
The Bottom Line
Any time we can get a taste of low humidity in the summer season, it is a real treat. That is where we stand for exactly two days, as high pressure and dry air lead to a stretch of delightful, almost springlike weather. It will be warm, but not hot.
Our next rain chance develops in about 24 to 36 hours. Clouds and humidity will also come roaring back by the weekend, leading to much more summerlike conditions for New Jersey's first full weekend of summer.
So far this week, we've progressed from disgusting heat and humidity on Sunday, to strong thunderstorms on Monday, to soggy weather on Tuesday. Our big transition is now complete, and we find ourselves in a superb slice of the atmosphere.
Dew points will dip into the 40s - that is ridiculously dry, especially in the summertime. That is lending to a cool start to the start, with statewide temperatures in the 40s and 50s. We'll top out in the mid 70s Wednesday afternoon. That's warm, but not quite hot. Running about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for late June.
This will be one of those days with literally zero chance of rain. Skies cleared early this morning, so you should see golden sunshine and blue overhead all day.
Wednesday night will stay quiet. Mainly clear skies will allow temps to dip into the mid 50s, on average. The coolest corners will probably see 40s again overnight.
We'll do it all over again, staying pleasant through the daytime hours at least. Mostly sunny skies will join a stronger southeasterly breeze, blowing off the ocean. That will keep temperatures slightly cooler along the Jersey Shore. I'll pinpoint highs in the lower to mid 70s.
A coastal storm system is modeled to develop off the mid-Atlantic coast during the day Thursday. Some models do push some raindrops into New Jersey in the afternoon hours. But I'm leaning more toward Thursday evening for any showers to be "spit" our way. The best chance for showers will be along the Shore.
Big changes, in the other direction this time. Because of that pesky coastal storm system in the neighborhood, clouds and humidity will increase by Friday morning. Dew points in the 60s will definitely add stickiness back into the air.
In addition, a few showers seem likely throughout the day Friday. We're not talking another prolonged, soaking, or severe. Just a smattering of raindrops and a "blah" feel to the day at times.
High temperatures will push toward 80 degrees on Friday. Believe it or not, that's still slightly below normal for this time of year. (Normal highs 83-84.)
Very warm and humid - the first full weekend of summer will feel quite summer-ish. High temperatures will push into the mid to upper 80s across most of the state. The air will be humid and thick. Clouds will probably win the sky. And we'll have to watch out for some popup showers and thunderstorms, especially during the day on Saturday. (Nothing organized or widespread though.)
The Extended Forecast
Signs are pointing toward New Jersey getting stuck on the warm, humid side of a stalled front through early next week. That will keep daily high temperatures near 90 degrees. Our weather could be unsettled at times too, especially close to that front in NW NJ.
I don't see any more big cooldowns or dry-outs in the forecast through early July. The dog days of summer will be here before you know it!