NJ weather: Unsettled weather returns, but staying mild this time around
The Bottom Line
Welcome to June! This is a magical date on the meteorological calendar, for three reasons:
--It is the first day of June. (Duh.) On average, it is NJ's 3rd hottest and 3rd wettest month of the year.
--It is the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. We have already had one named storm - Ana, a "fish storm". There are no developments in the Atlantic basin right now.
--It is the start of climatological summer, the warmest three months of the year (June-July-August).
After a soggy, gloomy, chilly Saturday and Sunday, the Memorial Day Weekend ended with a beautiful late Spring day Monday. Back-to-work/back-to-school Tuesday looks fine. And then our weather turns unsettled again. This time around, however, rain chances will come with mild temperatures.
Just like Memorial Day Monday, it should be a reasonably pleasant weather day. There is a bank of clouds moving in from the west. So skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy (leaning toward the latter).
The increase in cloud cover should not affect temperatures too much. We're start off on the cool side, close to 50 degrees. And highs are forecast to be in the mid 70s Tuesday afternoon, right on the average for early June.
As clouds thicken, the chance of a sprinkle is not zero from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. But there's no substantial lifting mechanism to cause any widespread or heavy rainfall.
The rest of Tuesday night will feature variable cloudiness and seasonably cool temperatures. Look for lows around the upper 50s Wednesday morning.
Model guidance suggests a couple rounds of showers will pass through (or at least pass by) the Garden State. Probably one early and one late. Light and scattered.
Having said that, I suspect Wednesday will be a mainly dry weather day. Lots of clouds, with only limited sun peeks. High temperatures will end up ever-so-slightly cooler than Tuesday, in the lower to mid 70s.
Here's where we all get wet. There are some differences in timing amongst forecast models. But it's clear that scattered rain will develop at some point Thursday, lasting through Friday morning. Total rainfall will probably be a half-inch to an inch. Healthy, but not too heavy.
You may hear some rumbles of thunder Thursday. Severe weather seems unlikely though.
You may feel an uptick in humidity on Thursday too.
High temperatures will reach the lower 70s - slightly below seasonal normals.
I will include a chance of showers both early and late-day. But the bigger story will be a big warmup kicking in. As skies become partly sunny, temperatures will cook into the lower 80s Friday afternoon.
The Weekend & Beyond
Summer-lovers, I think next weekend's weather will make up for the disappointing Memorial Day Weekend. Summerlike 80s to around 90. Sweaty sunshine. Hazy, hot, and humid.