NJ weekend weather: A bit of rain, a few snowflakes, and that’s it
All week long, I've been studying and discussing a complicated coastal storm system setup for the upcoming weekend. I gave it special attention, for two very good reasons. 1.) It was a precarious situation, with a legitimate chance of several inches of snow. 2.) Zonal flow and seasonable temperatures made for an extremely boring weather week otherwise.
I can confidently say that this storm system really won't be a big deal for New Jersey at all. As the headline of this post suggests, we're facing a bit of rain, possible mixed with some snowflakes. The threat for travel impacts and/or coastal flooding seems very low. Good news all around! (Unless you love snow, of course.)
For Friday, we are once again starting out with chilly temperatures in the 20s and 30s. While you'll catch some bright breaks of sunshine Friday morning, clouds will thicken up again for Friday afternoon. The daytime hours should remain dry, with high temperatures in the mid to (maybe) upper 40s. Not bad for January's grand finale.
Showers may arrive as early as Friday evening, as a piece of energy passes over New Jersey from west to east. (This would have been a very important component of our coastal storm, but the timing didn't phase properly.) Overnight temperatures will generally stay above freezing, bottoming out in the mid 30s. So we're really looking at cool rain here, at the most. (And even that's not a guarantee for the entire state.)
Saturday will bring a continuing chance of light rain, as our coastal storm system passes well to the south and east. Therefore, the best chance for raindrops will be along New Jersey's immediate coastline. I suppose there's still a slight chance the storm ultimately wiggles closer to New Jersey and brings even more widespread rain and/or wintry mix. But forecast models are in very good agreement about how this thing is going to play out — wet, not wintry.
Perhaps the best chance for a few snowflakes will come early Sunday morning, with lingering snow/rain showers possible. Then skies will clear out and we pick up a stiff westerly breeze (up to 20 mph) by Sunday afternoon. Good football watchin' weather! (Whatever that means, haha!)
The big weather story for early next week is a big warmup. I'd call it a February thaw — but we literally have nothing to thaw out. (Oh boy, he's just full of corny meteorologist humor, haha!)
Monday looks spectacular, with sunshine and high temperatures between about 55 and 60 degrees.
A quick shower is possible around midday Tuesday, but again we'll end up in the 50s.
And following one more unseasonably warm 60-degree day Wednesday, we'll cool down significantly with a chance of precipitation. Right now, models are promoting a rainy scenario through the second half of next week. But if temperatures do drop down cold enough, there could be a wintry component. This will obviously be a big focus of our forecasts next week.
Have a great weekend!