The Bottom Line

Tuesday will be a bright spot in a “blah” week. We’ll dry out for about 30 hours between rain chances. Our next storm system will impact New Jersey from Wednesday midday through Thursday and Friday morning. An inch of rain, tumbling temperatures, and even some snowflakes are in the forecast.

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A much better and brighter day than Monday. It’s going to turn into a very nice day.

As of this writing (5:15 a.m.), there’s still one band of rain over the middle of New Jersey. I’ve watched this batch of once-steady rain disintegrate steadily over the next few hours. So while we face some sprinkly, drizzly, misty conditions through early Tuesday morning, it’s not going to last long. By mid-morning, we’ll dry out. And by late morning, we should start to see substantial sunshine across the state.

(At least) partial sunshine, seasonable temperatures, light winds, and dry weather will make for a pleasant Tuesday afternoon. Look for high temperatures on either side of 60 degrees.

NAM model cloud cover forecast as of midday Tuesday, as partial sunshine breaks out across New Jersey. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

Tuesday night looks good too. It will be mainly clear, aside from patchy fog. Lows dip into the mid 40s or so.


A dry start, but that won’t last long.

It will be mostly cloudy and still mild, with highs popping into the lower 60s. (Maybe even some mid 60s in South Jersey.) But by lunchtime, we’ll have to watch the western sky for the arrival of scattered showers. There could be some pockets of heavier rain and maybe even some rumbles of thunder. We’ll continue to see spotty wet weather through Wednesday night too.


Another wet and potentially miserable day.

As the center of this storm system tracks right over New Jersey, we face pockets of steady if not heavy rain throughout the day Thursday. Just like the last one, North Jersey looks like the wet spot here - there will be breaks in the rain (and maybe even hints of sun?) in South Jersey. Based on the latest forecast track, I’d estimate total rainfall over an inch to the north, but only about a quarter-inch to the south.

GFS model forecast for Thursday morning, as soaking rain returns to New Jersey. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

During the first part of Thursday’s rain, an easterly (on-shore) breeze will keep conditions dreary and cool. We’ll only see high temperatures in the lower 50s Thursday.

And then, as a cold front causes a gusty northwesterly wind to kick up (30 mph), temperatures will take a tumble through the second half of Thursday.

By Thursday evening, Thursday night, and Friday morning, we’ll likely see thermometers fall into the 30s across the northern half of the state (at least). I don’t think a widespread freeze is in the cards, but many spots will probably descend past the frost point.

In addition, the area about a mile over our heads will cool down even more and even faster than at the surface. That’s the snow growth zone. So yes, we do have to talk about a chance for snowflakes Thursday night.

The GFS precipitation type forecast for Thursday night illustrates the chance of snow (blue) in North Jersey as temperatures tumble. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

The snow chance will be primarily located along and north of Interstate 80. The only way we’d have to worry about travel impacts or accumulations is if a pocket of truly heavy snow develops. Otherwise, the ground will be too wet and warm for snow/slush to stick.

Snowfall in mid-April isn’t that unusual. But that doesn’t mean we have to like it.


The latest model guidance shows improvements for Friday, as rain and snow showers hopefully end in the early morning hours.

The rest of Friday will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with a continuing brisk wind. High temperatures will only reach the lower 50s - about 10 degrees below normal for mid-April.

The Weekend & Beyond

Just in time for the weekend, the storm clouds clear and the wind calms down. It won’t exactly be sunny nor warm, but I think both days will be pleasant.

Partly sunny and upper 50s on Saturday. Mostly cloudy and lower 60s on Sunday.

Don’t get used to the dry weekend weather. Our next chances of rain will come along on Monday and on Tuesday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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