Valentine’s Day forecast for NJ: Hope you ‘love’ colder temps
Colder air is here! However, as we have discussed for several days now, it's really not manifesting itself as a big, bad, brutal blast of arctic air. Sure, you'll need to dig out some heavier winter gear. And it's finally going to feel like February (and then some). But we're not breaking records. And we're not talking about truly "dangerous" cold either.
Overnight temperatures actually dropped a bit slower than I had expected — we're starting off Friday morning mainly in the 30s. (20s north, near 40 south coast.) The problem is, thermometers are not going to climb as Friday (Valentine's Day) gets started, despite plenty of bright sunshine. So temps will settle in the lower to mid 30s Friday afternoon. A breeze will keep the wind chill (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) in the 20s (at best) all day.
Two important things will happen in our weather world Friday night: 1.) winds calm down, and 2.) the core of this air mass hovers right on top of us. That translates to some really cold temperatures. Most of the state will dip into the teens overnight. The coldest areas (NW NJ and the Pine Barrens) could very well see single digit temperatures by Saturday morning.
This looks to be our coldest night since at least December. Depending on exactly how low thermometers dip, it could be our coldest night since last February. Yes, arctic air has been a rarity this winter.
We'll contend with one more unseasonably cold day Saturday, with highs only in the lower 30s. Winds will be lighter, so the cold air will carry less of a bite. And once again we'll enjoy abundant sunshine, until clouds roll in late-day.
And that's it! A warmup kicks in Sunday, as high temperatures bump into the upper 40s. Models have sporadically hinted at a flurry or snow shower at some point. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny.
For Monday (Presidents Day), temps will slide back slightly into the mid 40s. It should be another mostly sunny weather day.
By the way... Notice something missing from the forecast for Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday? Rain! February 2020 has been quite a soggy, active month so far. It will be nice to have a stretch of dry air and dry weather. February is, after all, New Jersey's driest month of the year (on average).
Our next storm system is set to arrive on Tuesday, causing another bout of roller coaster weather. I'm seeing rain arriving Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures in the 50s. Then drying out Wednesday in the 40s, cooling further into the 30s on Thursday.
Happy Valentine's Day! Happy Presidents Day! Have a great weekend!