The Bottom Line

As our pesky stationary front finally exits, New Jersey's weather will settle down Friday. While there will still be a few hit-or-miss showers around, we'll start the weekend much drier and more pleasant. The air conditioner and umbrella will get a well-deserved break! However, the forecast is not all sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows here — Sunday will be a very different story, with rain, clouds, and much cooler temperatures on the way.

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Friday

As of this writing (5 a.m.), parts of Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland counties are getting wet. For the umpteenth morning in a row, we also have some patchy fog, especially in places where it poured on Thursday. And there will be additional hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms through about dinnertime Friday evening.

Having said that, the rain looks to be more "miss" than "hit". And there will be pockets of pleasantry too — especially as sunshine breaks out Friday afternoon. We'll also get a taste of drier air, with dew points lowering into the 60s. High temperatures should push into the lower to mid 80s.

So Friday night looks fairly comfortable with temperatures dipping into the 60s and no fog issues.

Saturday

On paper, the start of the weekend looks great. Partly sunny and breezy, with high temperatures in the lower 80s. However, that wind will be blowing from the east-northeast — an on-shore breeze. That will keep Jersey Shore beaches cooler and possibly cloudier than you'd like. And it will lead to some rougher surf and an increased rip current risk.

In addition, our next storm system could push into western New Jersey as early as dinnertime Saturday. Showers may spread through the rest of the state Saturday night.

Sunday

An extended period of steady, occasionally heavy rain is possible just about all-day Sunday. But it's not a slam dunk forecast — there is a good chance this area of low pressure dives south of New Jersey, missing part of all of us. The difference in models is nuts — GFS=wet, Euro=dry, NAM=semi-wet. If the wet solution plays out, we could see between a half-inch and one-and-a-half inches of total rainfall. Heaviest, steadiest rain would be Sunday morning, with a chance of late-day clearing.

Regardless of what falls from the sky, Sunday looks cloudy, breezy, and quite cool. My forecast puts high temperatures in the lower 70s. However, the wetter scenarios could keep temperatures in the 60s all day! It will probably be New Jersey's coolest day since mid-May.

Monday

Temperatures jump back into the lower 80s, and early clouds will turn to sunshine. A cold front will arrive with spotty showers and thunderstorms late-day.

Tuesday & Beyond

Monday's front will open the door to some very dry air. We're talking dew points possibly in the 40s and 50s — that's crazy in the summer! If this forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday holds — and I really hope it does — morning lows could dip into the 50s in NJ's coolest spots. Afternoon highs in the seasonable 80s with sunshine and low humidity? We could be treated to a few really nice days next week. Next rain chance, along with rising temperatures and humidity, would arrive on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Josephine is still expected to turn toward the open Atlantic, becoming an issue for Bermuda around the middle of next week. (Maybe some rough surf at the Jersey Shore, if the swell comes close enough.) There is a slight chance another area of low pressure ejecting from the Carolinas will develop into a depression or storm — but it will be rapidly moving away from the U.S. East Coast.

Have a great weekend!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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