Now that the leaves are falling and the temperatures are dropping, our attention turns to what to expect this winter, and there is no shortage of opinions on the matter.

Some published reports are already circulating which lead you to believe we could be in for a bad winter. Even the Old Farmer's Almanac has some words of winter doom. But before you shed any tears over this, we talked to our meteorologist Dan Zarrow about it, and he had plenty to say...

 

In general, I do not believe in seasonal forecasting.  I think our ability to forecast general weather conditions 4 to 6 months in advance is hit-or-miss, at best.  (And don't get me started on the Farmer's Almanac, which attempts to "predict" the weather 6 to 18 months ahead using their highly secretive and highly questionable formula.)  There are certainly important signals throughout the atmosphere and oceans that provide hints at the long-range winter forecast, including the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and sea surface temperatures.  But, as the article you linked does admit, there are a lot of question marks regarding the strength of these variable elements and how they will interact throughout the winter season.

And let's face it - all it will take is ONE big snow storm to make this a memorable, bad winter!

 

So there you have it. It's so unlike us here in New Jersey to worry about things, right? Yeah, right. Maybe our state slogan should be..."New Jersey -The Worry State".

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